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Informing COVID-19 Policies Using Modeling

Epidemiological models to understand the potential impact of the vaccines and therapeutics

COVID-19 pandemic has affected every sector of human life. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Value Analytics Labs has developed multiple COVID-19 disease models that its partners— Gilead Sciences and Janssen — have used for demand forecasting and assessing the impact of COVID-19 interventions.

Our team projected the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic for 156 countries by developing a system dynamics (compartment) model using data from each country. The model was calibrated to reproduce the reported COVID-19 deaths in each country and was updated weekly. These data were shared with the senior leadership of Gilead Sciences every week throughout 2020, which provided critical insights on demand for COVID-19 treatment, remdesivir.

Value Analytics Labs generated
COVID-19 projections for 156 countries
covering 96.3% of world population.

In addition, the Value Analytics Labs developed a detailed COVID-19 vaccine model to inform the value of COVID-19 vaccines in multiple countries. The model can generate age-specific COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths under different scenarios of COVID-19 vaccination. Our team further extended this model to evaluate the timing of safe lifting of restrictions in the United States with the availability of COVID-19 vaccines; these results were presented at the 2021 Annual Research Meeting of the Academic Health.

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